Bogotá, diciembre 17 de 2017
Gran golpe a la confianza inversionista ha recibido Colombia en la última semana por causa de la calificación que Standard & Poors redujo de BBB a BBB-, lo que significa mayor riesgo país de largo plazo.
Como si este gobierno no hubiera mentido suficiente y no se hubiera hartado ya de engaños, la respuesta del Ministro de Hacienda, Mauricio Cárdenas, estuvo enfocada a tergiversar el grave significado de la calificación y de responsabilizar al gobierno entrante de sus nefastas consecuencias, manifestando que «es señal de alerta para las decisiones fiscales que se adopten en los próximos años». O sea, ellos hicieron un pésimo e irresponsable manejo de la economía, pero los culpables de la debacle financiera que se desatará por tanta corrupción y desafuero, serán los representantes del próximo gobierno, cualquiera que sea.
En 2.011, después de una exitosa gestión económica de 8 años del gobierno Uribe (2.002 – 2.010), las calificadoras internacionales le otorgaron a Colombia un ascenso de Grado Especulativo a Grado de Inversión, por lo cual se insistía en mantener ese grado de confianza para estimular la inversión extranjera.
Con todo el panorama económico a su favor, heredado de un manejo brillante de la economía del país, el gobierno Santos no solo dilapidó los recursos de la bonanza petrolera, redujo el crecimiento económico, sobre-endeudó al país y lo sometió a mayor carga tributaria, sino que arruinó los indicadores internacionales que ponen a Colombia al filo de perder el Grado de Inversión.
La comparación de los resultados en materia económica de las gestiones Uribe / Santos, reflejan evidente ineptitud del segundo. Cuando Uribe asumió en 2.002, el déficit fiscal era de -4.3% y durante los siguientes seis años se redujo a -2.3%. Durante todo su mandato el crecimiento promedio de Colombia fué del 4.6% con un precio promedio del petróleo de US$64. El crecimiento durante el gobierno Santos ha sido del 3.6%, con un precio promedio del petróleo de US$72 -se estima que en 2.017 no sea superior al 1.7%- y gozando de la herencia que le dejó Uribe, que se tradujo en el Grado de Inversión logrado en 2.011.
En el gobierno Uribe se dependía menos de los ingresos de Ecopetrol y su participación representada en el total era de 7,35%, mientras que en el de Santos es del 10.24%.
En resumen, la gestión económica del gobierno Santos ha sido un desastre. Ha generado menor crecimiento, mientras ha impuesto mayor carga tributaria al país. Vendió Isagén por $6,49 billones para gastar desaforadamente en mermelada en todas sus presentaciones y, para mantener las promesas de su proceso de paz, el país gastará $130 billones durante en los próximos 15 años.
Al borde de perder el Grado de Inversión y reducirlo nuevamente a Grado Especulativo, Colombia corre el gravísimo riesgo de elevar los intereses, reducir el dinero circulante, seguir desacelerando el crecimiento, perder valor en sus portafolios de inversiones y disparar el precio del dólar.
Un muy preocupante panorama nos deja Santos, después de haber hecho de nuestra economía un carnaval de corrupción comprando todo tipo de simpatías para su mentiroso proceso de paz y dejarnos un país literalmente arruinado. ¡Y la culpa será de otros!
Fuentes:
– Ministerio de Hacienda – Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo, 2.017.
– DANE
– Banco de la República
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